#BrexitLawsuits in #ISDS

isds

It is possible for investors to successfully challenge the UK government for losses incurred as a result of Brexit.

The following links offer an introduction to the topic and an explanation as to why law firms are working on this issue.

For a layman’s explanation see the introduction to these suits in the Huffington Post (here).

For a more lawyery explanation of why this is something the British government should worry about, see my article on Verfassungsblog (here).

My full scale analysis of the issue is introduced on Academia (here) and the complete text can be downloaded from SSRN (here).

If you are researching this issue and are looking for a publication outlet, the Manchester Journal of International Economic Law is running a special issue (see here).

mjiel

Feel free to get in touch to share your thoughts or comment using the options below. There is after all a very lively debate on this topic.

@iGlinavos

 

 

 

 

 

Briefing: #Article50 and #BlackWednesday

Today Theresa May pulls the Brexit trigger. Read all about what this means for markets following the links below.

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Articles

  1. Grexit, Brexit και τα παραμύθια (23.3.17) The Huffington Post in Greek
  2. No-Deal Brexit And Fear (17.3.17) The Huffington Post
  3. The City of London is preparing for a hard Brexit (19.1.17) Newsweek
  4. How Eastern Europe is best placed to hit the ground running after a hard Brexit (15.12.16) The Conversation UK
  5. #Marmitegate: what the tumbling pound means for our favourite products (13.10.16) The Conversation UK
  6. Why TTIP will live on, but not for the EU (30.6.16) The Conversation UK

Media

  1. 10.16 Guest on BBC Radio 4 Today Programme, speaking about Brexit (listen here
  2. 06.16 Guest on ΣΚΑΙ radio, speaking about Brexit -in Greek- (listen here).
  3. Horror Show: Brexit unleashes a political nightmare (1.7.2016) Raconteur Magazine,

@iGlinavos

#Article50 and the end of the beginning

Theresa better off

Theresa May is finally ready to cross her Rubicon by notifying the EU of Britain’s intention to leave the Union, using the famous Article 50 process. Brexit minister David Davis told us last week that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is not as frightening as some people think. Think about it this way, currently one can go online and order a fancy desk lamp from a French company and pay the price plus postage. If the lamp was coming from the USA however, customs duties will need to be paid by the customer (5.7%) once the goods have arrived in the UK but before they are delivered. She will also be charged import VAT at 20% and there will be a £8 handling fee to pay. The consequence is that buyers may well seek a domestically manufactured lamp instead. Wouldn’t this be a great thing for local manufacturers? It might, but it is likely that the domestic lamp manufacturer would incur similar charges when importing components to make their lamps. Further, they will find it more expensive to sell their lamps in Europe. Selling on WTO rules necessitates having appropriate licences and making export declarations to customs and following transport procedures. Increased demand from local customers will be probably offset by increasing costs of manufacture and a loss of market share in Europe. Mr Davis may not scare as easy as the consumers and businesses who will suffer the consequences. Brexit is happening regardless.

To summarise, we can say the following: Theresa May has selected two avenues for achieving Brexit. One is a so-called hard-Brexit (exit from the Single Market and the Customs Union) while the other is a presumed ‘no-deal’ Brexit (trade with Europe thereafter will be governed by WTO rules). Both options raise a series of significant dangers for the British economy, and crucially present a formidable challenge to the Treasury. The City has indicated that continuing business in London will require significant tax cuts as compensation for the loss of ‘passporting rights’ in the case of a hard-Brexit. Alternatively, a ‘no-deal’ fall back on WTO rules will cause significant upheaval to manufacturers, necessitating state aid to a number of industries. How will the Treasury fund either (or both) remains a burning question.

Good luck to all of us.

Art50

@iGlinavos

 

 

 

IMF and Greece, the breakup

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The IMF has been on its way out of the Greek Rescue programme for a while now.

The band-of-bandits of Mr Tsipras is getting ready to celebrate ousting the IMF. Before you join in the dance in Syntagma Square, listen to my podcast on what the IMF is, what it does and what it did (and did not do) in Greece.

This is a February 2017 lecture on what the IMF is and what it does. The discussion on the role of the IMF in Greece is from 44’30” onwards.

Enjoy and feel free to comment using the discussion options in this post.

@iGlinavos