20 September 2015 — The Election Result (Prediction)
This is my prediction for the election result of 20.9.15. This is not based on anything secret, polling not in the public domain, or anything like that. It is based on reading the polls over the last 2 weeks carefully and evaluating trends. I have been paying attention to what people are saying, as opposed to what they report to pollsters on the phone and this is my conclusion. Polls have been wrong in the Greferendum, in the recent UK election and in many other cases. They are wrong now.
I think the damage done to Syriza by its rapid change from anti-austerity to bailout proponent is being under-estimated. Despite their poor polling I expect the party of Mr Lafazanis to come third. Golden Dawn and KKE I believe will come in slightly better than usual, but not significantly so. I think Pasok will perform better, but Potami and ANEL will fare much worse. I believe that despite the latest polls, ND will scrape through and will have the task of trying to form a new government on Monday. This will not be easy as a large proportion of the vote is likely to go to small parties that will not reach the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation.
There is a good chance I am wrong of course, but there is always the chance I am right.