The Greek Election Result

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20 September 2015  — The Election Result (Prediction)


prediction

To παρών γράφημα βασίζεται σε εντελώς προσωπική άποψη με βάση ανάλυση της πολιτικής κατάστασης. Περιέχει πληροφορίες που δημοσιεύτηκαν ήδη στα ΜΜΕ πρίν την Παρασκευή 18.9.15

This is my prediction for the election result of 20.9.15. This is not based on anything secret, polling not in the public domain, or anything like that. It is based on reading the polls over the last 2 weeks carefully and evaluating trends. I have been paying attention to what people are saying, as opposed to what they report to pollsters on the phone and this is my conclusion. Polls have been wrong in the Greferendum, in the recent UK election and in many other cases. They are wrong now.

I think the damage done to Syriza by its rapid change from anti-austerity to bailout proponent is being under-estimated. Despite their poor polling I expect the party of Mr Lafazanis to come third. Golden Dawn and KKE I believe will come in slightly better than usual, but not significantly so. I think Pasok will perform better, but Potami and ANEL will fare much worse. I believe that despite the latest polls, ND will scrape through and will have the task of trying to form a new government on Monday. This will not be easy as a large proportion of the vote is likely to go to small parties that will not reach the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation.

There is a good chance I am wrong of course, but there is always the chance I am right.

@iGlinavos

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7 thoughts on “The Greek Election Result

  1. Nicholas Martin says:

    Dear Ioannis

    Firstly, many, many thanks for your very informative blogging. I was wondering if you might be interested to write a piece dissecting To Potami at some point. There has been lots of commentary over the months and years about Syriza, ND, Pasok, GD, and to some extent even KKE, but it seems difficult to find much English-language info about TP — what do they really stand for, who supports them, what (if any) “interests” are behind them, what could/would they be expected to do better — or not — if in power. From the outside and from far away, they appear somewhat similar to other European intellectual center-left/liberal-left parties, like the “realo” wing of the German Greens or parts of the UK Lib-Dems, and that makes them a natural repository for hopes from outside observers of such a persuasion (*people like me*). But quite possibly such people (*like me*) are missing rather large parts of the picture…

    Wishing your country all the best as it goes to the Polls

    Nicholas

    PS: did you see the allegations in an FT article from the other day, that Tsipras supposedly spent the summer at a shipping magnate’s villa, commuting to work in his helicopter? Is there, to your knowledge, any truth to them?

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    • Nicholas, the allegations concerning Tsipras don’t really matter. The problem I have is more profound, and really concerns democracy, what interests were or are involved in the larger scene pre and post 2008 and the following European debt crisis?

      Concerning the shipping magnate. Could that be Yiannis Alafouzos?

      Seems he controls the Skai Group, whose reporter recently interviewed Paul Krugman, at the Athens democracy Forum, where prominently his highness Aga Khan was welcome.

      this sticked out to me from the video Yanis Varoufakis put up recently:
      Consider: If it is true that the “Greek bail out”, which wasn’t even possible according to then Eurozone rules, only served to save Greek banks, never mind the suffering on Greek ground, that’s a thoroughly legitimate concern.

      And maybe beyond that the fact that Krugman too supports a haircut, so business as usual can return to Greece. Since after all, there are a lot of Wall Street bankers that claim that Greece might well become a Mecca for investment after. That’s really how I read Yanis from my own rather limited perspective.

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      • Sorry, I was semi absent, and now I should devote my attention on possible personal troubles ahead. 😉

        I actually wanted to post passages I transcribed from the Skai video with Paul Krugman at the Athens Democracy Forum which have gone while I shifted from Ioannis later to this earlier thread. Yes, peculiar Greece versus our outsider impressions about To Potami. … Did they maybe pay more interest on the outside then the inside that really matters more? PR wise I wonder.

        Check for yourself the video on the video on You Tube instead of on Yanis Varoufakis site.

        Paul Krugman interview SKAI – 09/17/2015

        Basically, Paul Krugman tells us that Greece debts will never be repaid anyway, thus other Eurozone countries’ taxpayers cannot loose anything anyway. In other words, they have lost it already.

        Plus Greece needs not only whatever type of restructuring but a haircut, so all the specialists on Wall Street that consider Greece as highly undervalued can help direct investment-money-flows there. But I guess the latter was sarcastic.

        This is pretty similar to what I suspect Yanis thinks, really.

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    • Last, but not least, Nicolas, welcome. You are German, aren’t you. Or are there really “foreigners” that know about the struggle about the “realos” and the “fundis”?

      This is my non-published response on the Paul Krugman interview on Yanis Varoufakis website:

      LeaNder on September 20, 2015 at 16:20 said:
      Your comment is awaiting moderation.

      Interesting interview, minus the odd closeup shots, maybe. 😉 I love Paul, but beyond his macroeconomic and austerity expertise his larger idea feels a bit like giving up Greece after a haircut to private investment. No? Maybe he is right. Dean, will tell me, maybe. (Dean Plassaras)

      ******
      It seems pretty obvious by now, that an immediate debt cut may have changed matters elementarily. On the other hand …

      … something I would like to understand a lot better is how it could have worked at its time as part of a larger post 2008 stabilization routine without causing larger turmoils concerning both markets and democracy everywhere else in Europe?

      My love is with Greek citizen undergoing hardship, not least Vaggelis, who had disappeared into the wilderness of austerity in Greece at the end of Yorgos Avgeropoulos great documentary. I hope he and the others we met and plus the multitude of anonymous faces in Greece suffering are relatively well.

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  2. Ioannis, it feels I must have misspelled your first name multiple times. I dropped a response to “elenits” question but am not sure it will turn up. Let’s see if another won’t turn up either in what I at this point in time consider PR controlled space.

    Indirectly, I asked your excuse for the multiple times I may have misspelled your first name. Hope you forgive. I also discovered that apart from my first name related to the βάρβαρος my second name is related to both your and Yanis name.Ιωάννης – Γιάννης, maybe that helps as a mental bridge in the future. It does help here to check the spelling above. 😉

    *****
    Anyway it’s really sad that our public channels, to the extend I can observe pretty much relegates Greek elections beyond the news to Phoenix which has a special report on Greek elections starting at 17:15 and ending in the usual 90 minutes time frame. Why not a little later? Or longer with informations?

    *****
    beyond that a friend in the background reports a rather limited voter turnout. By, the way a friend that initially forced me to vote at all. 😉

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  3. I hadn’t noticed Klaus Kastner’s recommendation before.

    At the moment it seems his wishes will come true. Let’s see. Given my perceptive limits, I keep wondering for longer now–given I was Greek–I might have voted for Syriza too. Mainly to get the political cadre out. But thankfully I hadn’t to decide on matters.

    ******
    What exactly is the historical source of the 50 (I understand) parliamentary seats of advantage that even one vote more can gain you? I keep wondering about.

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