Greek Election: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

result

Here is the actual result of the Greek election of 20.9.15. I was way off in my prediction yesterday, for better or worse. Here is a preliminary analysis of what this result means.

The Grexit favouring parties (Golden Dawn, LAE, KKE) have managed 15% of the vote (much less than the 25% I anticipated). Does this mean that the threat of Grexit is receding? Syriza and ANEL emerge triumphant from this election, with a total of 155 MPs (145 for Syriza and 10 for ANEL) their unholy alliance survives. The two parties who came to power in January by promising to rip-up the Bailout MoUs are now to govern to implement another MoU. The people who made a living out of decrying selling-off to the creditors, begging on all fours, capitulating in shame, are supposed to implement the terms of the summer Bailout. The wise Greek people elected them to do exactly that, so they must know something.

KKE and LAE have fared badly. It seems that the trend I observed when I visited Greece this summer, “hide behind a frappé and pretend nothing is happening” has sunk the parties that openly advocated a return to the national currency. The Greeks prefer to imagine that prideful resistance, without actually risking Grexit is a way forward. Mr (all-hat-and-no-cattle) Tsipras will continue ‘negotiating’ with the Europeans till they give him the free lunch that he believes he deserves.

PASOK has fared better. Perhaps this is nothing more than the effect of absorbing the Papandreou splinter party and DIMAR, a moribund centre-left relic of a couple of elections before. Potami is one of the serious losers of this election. Potami seems to be going the way of the aforementioned DIMAR. Theodorakis had distinctly failed to project a serious proposal in these elections. Any party that adopts the policy “vote for us first and learn what we want to do later” like it did in January, does not really deserve more than a few percentage points. In this election, where who would be first was so important, Potami saw its power dissipate and mostly repatriate to ND. ND survives to fight another election (perhaps soon, judging from Mr Tsipras penchant for renewing mandates every few months).

EK (Enosi Kentroon or Union of Centrists) of TV persona Leventis is not worthy of serious discussion. He gains 9 MPs as the Cicciolina of Greek politics.

The big black blotch on the political landscape are the neo-Nazi primitive thugs of Golden Dawn. They came third. Those who voted for them make me feel ashamed for being Greek. There is no excuse for voting for these swine. NONE.

This election, as predicted, solves nothing. It renews the mandate of a band of incompetent populists to talk and talk while the country sinks. Yet again, this is the grandeur of democracy: The people are free to choose their executioner. I pity those who voted for Greece in Europe as a partner, not as a beggar and cheat.

Good night and Good luck

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We don’t have Cicciolina, but we have Leventis

@iGlinavos

The Greek Election Result

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20 September 2015  — The Election Result (Prediction)


prediction

To παρών γράφημα βασίζεται σε εντελώς προσωπική άποψη με βάση ανάλυση της πολιτικής κατάστασης. Περιέχει πληροφορίες που δημοσιεύτηκαν ήδη στα ΜΜΕ πρίν την Παρασκευή 18.9.15

This is my prediction for the election result of 20.9.15. This is not based on anything secret, polling not in the public domain, or anything like that. It is based on reading the polls over the last 2 weeks carefully and evaluating trends. I have been paying attention to what people are saying, as opposed to what they report to pollsters on the phone and this is my conclusion. Polls have been wrong in the Greferendum, in the recent UK election and in many other cases. They are wrong now.

I think the damage done to Syriza by its rapid change from anti-austerity to bailout proponent is being under-estimated. Despite their poor polling I expect the party of Mr Lafazanis to come third. Golden Dawn and KKE I believe will come in slightly better than usual, but not significantly so. I think Pasok will perform better, but Potami and ANEL will fare much worse. I believe that despite the latest polls, ND will scrape through and will have the task of trying to form a new government on Monday. This will not be easy as a large proportion of the vote is likely to go to small parties that will not reach the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation.

There is a good chance I am wrong of course, but there is always the chance I am right.

@iGlinavos