Grexit Daily News – 13 August 2015

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13 August 2015  — The ‘real’ Left is here !!!


¡Hasta la Victoria Siempre!, Vive la révolution and Allahu Akbar to everyone. I greet you with the magnificent news that Comrade Lafazanis is to launch a new ‘anti-memorandum’ party.

I have been waiting for these news for a while now. After the original Anti-MOU party, New Democracy became government and started implementing austerity, after the de-rigueur Anti-MOU party Syriza became government and brought us ‘Bailout 3: The Return’, the country was gagging for a novel party to take the mantle of the anti-memorandum fight.

lafazaneiro

Lafazanis proclaims to be the genuine expression of the glorious OXI vote of the Greferendum. He is to lead the ‘I want to have my cake and eat it’ camp of the glorious, revolutionary left in Greece. He surely will have at the forefront Kostantopoulou, Lapavitsas and I am guessing Yanis Varoufakis, unless this grouping is a little too low brow and old style ‘workers in caps’ stuff for Yani.

I do hope that this split in Syriza and the upcoming election will allow political parties to stop the BS and come clean in front of the Greek people. Is there a party that can ‘negotiate’ better? No! We tried this with ND, tried it with Syriza and we are where we are, with a new Bailout.

The only point of new political formations (pretending to be the ‘real’ left, the banana-republic heart of Syriza) is to argue for a return to the Drachma.

Lafazanis needs the courage to campaign for the Drachma. Kostantopoulou with her Adolphian rhetorical skills needs the courage to campaign for the Drachma. Lapavitsas needs to stop bifurcating and explain what a return to the Drachma means.Yanis…. I don’t know what Yanis is trying to do.

The others, ND, PASOK (whoever is left), Potami need to join forces (as Hugo Dixon keeps arguing in fact) and run on a Euro platform.

Is this pro-austerity? Is this pro-subjugation? It is life vs BS, this is what it is.

Life under the Drachma will be unimaginably worse. Life under the Drachma run by the couch-revolutionaries of the likes of Lafazanis will make North Korea seem efficient.

No more BS, we need an election so the people can take ownership of this mess and admit to the problem (even without seeing a solution). Election as Catharsis.

By the way, why doesn’t the Syriza splinter faction join KKE? Oh, they are still Euro-communists. I see. Makes sense. We should not confuse the Judean People’s Front with the People’s Front of Judea

russian-revolution-H

@iGlinavos

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19 thoughts on “Grexit Daily News – 13 August 2015

  1. Copy of new post on my blog:
    https://erikdesonville.wordpress.com/2015/08/13/greek-debt-sustainability-revisited/

    (Quote)

    Yves Smith has just posted an extremely interesting text:
    “Greek Debt Sustainability: The Devil is in the Tails”
    Article written by Prof Andrea Consiglio and Prof Stavros Zenios
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/08/greek-debt-sustainability-the-devil-is-in-the-tails.html

    The gist of the article is that Greece’s sovereign debt (given todays debt profile as it is) is both “sustainable” and “not sustainable” at the same time, depending on what exactly is meant by “sustainability”, and how this insight can lead to practical policies.

    The argument is quite technical and makes a distinction between “tactical sustainability” (when debt is non-increasing under current conditions) and “strategic sustainability” (when ultimately “return to the financial markets” is possible, under realistic future market conditions – that are “future” and thus rather uncertain).

    The finding is that Greece’s debt is tactically sustainable (given todays favourable conditions under the EZ/ECB/EFSF umbrella after the debt relief and restructuring of 2012), but most likely strategically unsustainable (with small likelihood of return to financial markets in the foreseeable future).

    Consiglio/Zenios conclude> Greece and its creditors should now ‘bet on the future’. Bazerman and Gillespie (1999) argue for the virtues of contingent contracts. Such a contract fits the Greek crisis like a glove. Agreement on debt relief cannot be reached right now; there are genuine differences of opinion on debt sustainability, there is lack of trust and the politics are unfavourable in Germany and northern EU countries. Instead of aiming for an agreement now, the differences of opinion should form the core of a contingent contract for debt relief. Withholding the disbursement of funds without prior actions is the stick that creditors wield. Contingent debt relief is the carrot; contingent on a successful first year IMF review and the debt-to-GDP ratio remaining above the current level, a pre-specified debt relief clause becomes effective. Our analysis shows what this clause could entail.

    This conclusion confirms my earlier post “Debt Relief” (2015-Aug-06) – debt is not an immediate concern (if it remains under control) and the debt relief issue can be dealt with “later” (in a few years or so) when the time is ripe. Some probation time of good Greek stewardship in cooperation with the institutions would certainly help to obtain a milder stance from Eurozone creditors. In my view this is not a “promise” that can be committed on paper now, it’s a matter of mutual trust that Greece belongs as a partner in Europe and we won’t let her down – if she does her part, in the best interests of the Greek population.

    A final remark: the Greek crisis is definitely not a “financial/monetary” crisis that can be magically “solved” with financial high-tech alone (haircuts or grexit or what-have-you). Such a purely financial approach won’t work. The real Greek problem is a rather weak economy in a somewhat dysfunctional state, living since 2008 in an after-party hangover that must be sweated out (see my post 2015-Aug-01). Hence the remedies of the third bailout (or whatever course of action is agreed upon) should focus on reforms strengthening state and economy, with the financial “carrot stick” as Consiglio & Zenios suggest. If my understanding is correct, that’s also todays German (Merkel/Schäuble) position.

    (End quote)

    Like

  2. As an outsider, I hesitate to comment on domestic politics…

    Anyway, for the record, here is transcript of an interview with Costas Lapavitsas dated 2015-Mar-12
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/03/lapavitsas-varoufakis-grexit-syriza/
    (It’s quite long but worthwhile reading).

    Already at that time he understood very well that the Varoufakis strategy with the eurogroup had failed. He also explains his own political views in quite some detail. One may or may not agree with these views (we know Ioannis doesn’t), but in any case, for me, Costas comes across as a very sincere man who says what he means and means what he says.

    Unfortunately he’s too purely marxist (*) and it shows: his thinking is very much focused on the primary (agriculture/mining) and secundary (manufacturing industry) sectors, and he isn’t very comfortable with the tertiary (services) sector. In my opinion that’s “the” major flaw that prevents pure marxism as a political doctrine from thriving in the modern world.

    (*) I have no objections against Marx. He was a brilliant scientist and a keen Hegelian observer of the industrial society of his times. And with a bit of imagination one might even say that “capitalism = Adam Smith + Karl Marx + Joseph Schumpeter + Herbert Simon + John Maynard Keynes + Milton Friedman”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_A._Simon
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman

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    • @erikdesonville
      A very, very well written comment. Thanks for the link.

      It was very useful to gain more background knowledge, first hand, about Costas. I think that he has very good political savvy. We will just have to see how he uses this gift. Despite his overt Marxist leanings, I think that his political philosophy is up to date, down to earth and close to the people. I like that. And I respect him for it too. His beliefs are controversial, but he is not afraid to speak out. And I do not perceive him to be a radical either. He has no wish to sink the Euro. He just wants to save Greece. He has also stated that he cannot totally guarantee that a Grexit is the best answer. But he is sure that the alternative will be a total failure. That is about as honest as you can get and it is then up to the people to take it from there.

      The one thing that the anti-Grexit lobby have yet to show me is how the economic turn-around is going to happen under the current conditions. I just cannot see the answer. Hence my support for a Grexit as an alternative strategy.

      In some ways, I see Costas and Varoufakis as two sides of the same coin. I wonder if these two could or would collaborate closer in the future. The reference to Lafa

      I know Ioannis has taken a recent, strong disliking to both Varoufakis and Lapavitsas and perhaps it is understandable. Varoufakis gave all of us hope that things could be better and he failed and things are worse. So he has a lot of work to do to regain our trust.

      Maybe Ioannis could give us his latest version of the rejuvenation of Greece

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  3. “I do hope that this split in Syriza and the upcoming election will allow political parties to stop the BS and come clean in front of the Greek people.”

    Every lamp-post in Greece should have this statement written in large bold letters on posters!

    Finally, the Greeks must allow a bit of honesty to creep into their thinking and decision-making.

    “Wake up and smell the Ouzo”

    Like

  4. @iGlinavos

    If you continue posting such humorous (although sadly true) stories like this, you are going to be a finalist in my “Funniest Story of the Month” competition.

    At the moment you are a hot favourite with this post and your “turkeys” post.

    Believe me, this is not an accolade that you would wish to have!

    Nevertheless, keep up the good work. I always look forward to your posts.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. mikenetherlands says:

    Hello comrades, when do we start our one Greek party? Our first action will be the introduction of the North Korean won. Then we have stability. And we need a Greek academic as Our Greet Leader, I suggest iGlinavos-Greek-il.

    The Greek politics are chancing in a slapstick. This is ridicules, Greece needs desperate political stability and not a roadshow of Greek professors who are promoting there personal views.
    In Greece are living people, men, women, children, elderly. They want a decent live, not a few professors who are playing politics. The people want solutions, not again someone who is telling them fairy tales.

    I am still wonder, when do they start to govern? When do they start to work? I mean without referendums, delay’s, snap elections, new roadshows of leftish Greek professors, etc?

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      • mikenetherlands says:

        Aiii, I mixt him up with Professor Kostas Lapavitsas.
        Panagiotis Lafazanis, a communist and our ex-minister. I agree with Zoi Konstantopoulou and Lapavitsas, but I don’t think Yanis will join the club. I think if he splits off SYRIZA he will start his one political movement. Yanis is a man with a mission. To mono problimataki is that he first must convince the rest of the world……

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  6. @iGlinavos
    I think it’s a perfectly reasonable question to ask, but politicians being politicians will continue to provide ambivalent answers.

    Besides, this third bail-out could still easily turn out as a Phyrrhus victory. Image the Eurozone closing a deal with a government that might no longer be in office in a couple of weeks. I can’t.

    Lava whatever is providing the perfect excuse for the Eurozone to delay their decision till after the elections and then the situation has deteriorated so much, that a Grexit is the only option that will be available. Irrespective of the Greek vote.

    Remember that Greece is just a pawn in the chess-game that France and Germany play and it will be sacrificed if it’s in the interest of France.

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  7. “He surely will have at the forefront Kostantopoulou, Lapavitsas and I am guessing Yanis Varoufakis, unless this grouping is a little too low brow and old style ‘workers in caps’ stuff for Yani.”

    Over here we had reports that there were only two dissenters inside Syriza. I no doubt could have been distracted by IT problems, which have the tendency to occupy my head, maybe to an extend I am not even aware of. … solved for the moment anyway.

    While we are waiting for the decisions in Bruxelles, and there seem to be good news from Finland, over here on German public TV concerning Finland…

    If I am not completely misguided, we would have the advantage of comparing national news of events in Greece, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. … by the way, I only watch public German news channels, they have to obey basic laws. Not that a closer look did change the rules of news factors much, but I hat ads …

    But yes, we German TV viewers met a man from To Potami, admittedly in the only TV news I so far watched on matters, pretty much repeating what I read from an earlier interview with another member. Coalition contracts are a must-be, just as they should be open to the public this guy said, adding: we are willing to form a coalition with Syriza based on such a contract. And he voted yes. … But he is open to a coalition.

    How did the partner party of Syriza vote?

    Could one change partners to midway avoid new elections? …

    ****
    sustainability no doubt, is a question that has to be answered longterm. Not sure if now. Although I hate the carrots and sticks image. (thanks Erik, you may have alerted me to the vox article, I really don’t store these matters)

    fact is, I seem to hate the north versus the south imagery. I cannot help but it triggers reminiscences of Hitler’s favorite myth. 😉 In other words anyone that wants me to embrace it may have a hard time.

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  8. Ok, I was seriously distracted this morning. Apparently.

    43 members of Syriza (of 120 I assume, from what has remained on my mind, and usually keep numbers in mind) have voted against the pick-your-term. That would be slightly above a third.

    More lately German TV suggests that Tsipras has to ask the “Question of Confidence” next week.

    I understand that some Greeks, I know, hate nothing more than new elections. They shaped my vision on it. It’s it bit what I recall of the Weimar republic to be quite honest. And yes, in a way its always present in our exchanges….

    Source:
    Germany’s first public channel is made up of the regional federal channels, inside the 1st they are the regional channels or the third program Ever since I can remember the Tagesschau, the view on daily news, comes from the “Northern German Broadcasting or Hamburg. Would that matter on facts?

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  9. Ok, there are numbers floating around, that may or may not be correct:

    118 was right though, only its 118 of 162 at 5pm. Hard to believe that 162 is easily mistaken for 120. …
    Wiki does not confirm the number: 162
    Wikipedia Parliament Seats

    Which leaves us guessing or waiting for reliable news.

    Like

    • The Parliamentary majority is 151 (300 seats in total). Syriza and ANEL are technically above that (162), but as a lot of Syriza MPs no longer vote with the government there is an issue. ANEL do mostly vote with Tsipras (strangely). The number 120 is more of a political fault line. Anyone falling below that will not be able to run a minority government. In reality Acts pass with much less than 151 in each vote as only present MPs vote, and in any case a few of them (Golden Dawn) are in prison and deprived of their voting rights. To cut a long story short, Tsipras is nowhere near commanding a majority in Parliament at the moment. An election is inevitable as a ‘national unity’ government is to no-one’s taste. To be fair, it is farcical for the opposition to keep this government running when Syriza MPs do not.

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      • Iannos, thanks. I have given up on looking at precise numbers they vary, wherever you look.

        But apparently Syriza is planning some type of emergency meeting in September.

        *****
        But since you mention Golden Dawn. I assume you watched the Greek documentary: AGORA – From Democracy to the Market. Great work.

        But who is the singer of the haunting song in the trailer? Yes, admittedly I wonder if that is Pavlos Fyssas. Is it?

        Like

  10. mikenetherlands says:

    I totally agree with Euclid Tsakalotos, “any deal is only as good as what you make of it. Let’s hope the Greek people will be able to make the best of this deal” (Ekathemerini, 15 August 2015.)

    The Greeks can’t have snap elections all the time. The facts doesn’t chance. A government have to govern and to be stable, trying to make the best out of it.

    I am not as pessimistic as most people. People are strong. Even after a war a country can recover. I have seen that with my one eyes. And economist are not soothsayers with a crystal ball, they can be wrong.

    The Greeks have to chance their minds. They must understand that the time of money for nothing has been ended. And never, never will return. And elect a serieus gouvernement without idiots like spartacus communists, trotskyism’s, fascist like Golden Dawn and outer museum pieces. The second world war ended in 1945 and the wall felt down in 1989. This is Europe, 2015, whether you like it or not.

    I like Euclid Tsakalotos. I still feel it as a honor that I wrote his biography on Wikipedia-NL. Friendly, modest, no roadshow. A pity the Greeks don’t want a ‘national unity’ government. I think it would be a good solution in this situation.

    Like

  11. Copy of post on my blog, “Le Minotaur Parisien”
    https://erikdesonville.wordpress.com/2015/08/15/le-minotaur-parisien/

    (Quote)

    The third bailout for Greece has been accepted by the eurogroup (with “strings attached”, of course).

    The Greek independence revolt (*) is over, or at least reduced to the fringe. Greece is now a French (**) protectorate, for better or for worse, that remains to be seen. Such is the outcome of seeking Minotaurs in Berlin.

    It’s Europe as could be expected… roughly East and North of Rhine and Danube is Berlin, West and South is Paris, and one never knows with London. [As for myself: I’m Ripuarian, my name is French, my native language is Germanic (Flemish Dutch), and my mind is erratic Anglosaxon.]

    (*) Revolt mostly run by academics from the anglosaxon diaspora: Varoufakis, Lapavitsas, Kouvelakis etc.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/30/how-british-universities-helped-mould-syriza-political-elite
    (**) Hollande/Sapin, Lagarde/Bouchard, Juncker/Moscovici. [Juncker is from Luxemburg i.e. “half” French]

    After a failed job in which I had put lots of work, my boss kindly reminded me of the difference between “effort” and “result”. He said that he appreciated my efforts, but payed for results, because that is what custumors ask for. On a larger scale: in the capitalist line of thought, value is measured according to result, and in the Marxist line of thought, value = labour (effort). Big difference indeed.

    State Marxism, that can’t be other than a transition phase in an economy’s evolution, works “best” in areas with a sufficiently large population and plenty of natural resources (ores and energy), such as the former Soviet Union and China. Economies like Cuba, North-Korea or Greece are too small to do the Marxist transition on their own, unless accepting decades of hardship. And usually the final outcome is not socialism (the paradise of workers), as Marx may have hoped, but something else.

    (End quote)

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  12. Copy of post on my blog
    https://erikdesonville.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/enarques/

    (Quote)

    Pim (on his blog)> Even if Greece sincerely wants to execute the new promises, they most likely can’t, because of lack of qualified staff that can execute them.

    Surely enough there is expertise available in Greece. See for instance the reports (2) of the Greek Parliamentary Budget Office. Excellent work, under the direction (1) of Prof. Panagiotis Liargovas, currently at the University of Peloponnese. The full reports are very technical and long reading, the 12-page Executive Summary for Apr-Jun 2015 (3) can give an idea.
    (1) http://www.pbo.gr/en-gb/organizationoperations/director-scientificcommittee.aspx
    (2) http://www.pbo.gr/en-gb/reports.aspx
    (3) http://www.pbo.gr/DesktopModules/EasyDNNNews/DocumentDownload.ashx?portalid=3&moduleid=5206&articleid=7822&documentid=3505

    I’m not seeking some kind of malicious conspiracy, I’m just guessing and trying to read between the lines: I think that the French elite is considering today’s Greece as an ideal terrain for young énarque graduates to acquire international experience, and this might well be the ultimate reason why French President François Hollande, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin and Commissioner Pierre Moscovici (all ENA graduates) have championed the third bailout. Even Merkel and Schäuble preferred not to object openly.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89cole_nationale_d'administration

    Maybe Greece could set up a similar school for forming the cadres for the future Greek administrations. For the time being I think the Greek administrations will be flooded with French énarque youngsters, the kind of guys that are ambitious and still young enough to know everything better.

    The Paris route could be worth a try, the London-trained Greek intellectuals had their chance for six months and didn’t make it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/30/how-british-universities-helped-mould-syriza-political-elite

    (End quote)

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