6 August 2015 — Turkeys to begin their ‘Vote for Xmas’ campaign
In case you thought #GrexitDailyNews has gone away on holiday, you were wrong! So long as there is a threat of Grexit this newsletter will stick around. Is there still a threat of Grexit you may say? So long as ‘Bailout 3: The Return’ is not signed, we are clearly not out of the woods. One could argue that there is no exiting these woods, even after the new MOU is signed. Maybe, but we are not even there yet. Do protracted negotiations and deadlines ring a bell? Supposedly if agreement on the new Bailout is not reached within the next 72hrs we will miss the 20.8.15 deadline, so new ‘interim’ funding in the region of 6-7 billion will need to be arranged so more time is bought for talks.
If I had a penny for every time a Greek deadline has been missed, I would have an account in Switzerland by now.
It seems very likely that Syriza is about to split. The so-called Left Platform has made it clear that they will not play ball and vote for a new MOU. The schizophrenic attitude of not voting for laws, yet supporting the government (how?) cannot and will not continue much after the end of the summer. Tsipras is running out of time as it is and cannot make it for a couple more months without a Parliamentary majority. He will call an election soon. The question is who will run in this election and on what platform?
Greece cannot have another fake vote on having its cake and eating it, Greferendum style.
The election will need to be fought by coalitions of parties, or forces, that have to clearly back remaining in the Euro or returning to the Drachma. Everything else is pointless, and in any case unlikely to attract much public interest. If the election is not fought on Grexit questions, then what will it be on? Vote for someone (who?) who will negotiate (LOL) with the creditors a better (double LOL) deal?
The Autumn election will bring out the turkeys as both options on the Grexit debate are ruinous
The Pro-Euro camp will ask turkeys to vote for Christmas arguing that continued austerity, cooperation with the Quadroika and endless recession will keep Greece nominally in the Euro and theoretically part of the European family.
The Pro-Drachma camp will ask turkeys to vote for another type of Christmas where the whole nation is united in poverty and has to undergo a lengthy adjustment run by the likes of Lafazanis, Kostantopoulou and it seems Yanis.
This turkey will vote for the Euro-Version of Christmas, but I can bet you we will keep having this discussion, and you will keep receiving this newsletter for some time to come.