Grexit Daily News – 6 August 2015

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6 August 2015  — Turkeys to begin their ‘Vote for Xmas’ campaign


In case you thought #GrexitDailyNews has gone away on holiday, you were wrong! So long as there is a threat of Grexit this newsletter will stick around. Is there still a threat of Grexit you may say? So long as ‘Bailout 3: The Return’ is not signed, we are clearly not out of the woods. One could argue that there is no exiting these woods, even after the new MOU is signed. Maybe, but we are not even there yet. Do protracted negotiations and deadlines ring a bell? Supposedly if agreement on the new Bailout is not reached within the next 72hrs we will miss the 20.8.15 deadline, so new ‘interim’ funding in the region of 6-7 billion will need to be arranged so more time is bought for talks.

If I had a penny for every time a Greek deadline has been missed, I would have an account in Switzerland by now.

It seems very likely that Syriza is about to split. The so-called Left Platform has made it clear that they will not play ball and vote for a new MOU. The schizophrenic attitude of not voting for laws, yet supporting the government (how?) cannot and will not continue much after the end of the summer. Tsipras is running out of time as it is and cannot make it for a couple more months without a Parliamentary majority. He will call an election soon. The question is who will run in this election and on what platform?

Greece cannot have another fake vote on having its cake and eating it, Greferendum style.

The election will need to be fought by coalitions of parties, or forces, that have to clearly back remaining in the Euro or returning to the Drachma. Everything else is pointless, and in any case unlikely to attract much public interest. If the election is not fought on Grexit questions, then what will it be on? Vote for someone (who?) who will negotiate (LOL) with the creditors a better (double LOL) deal?

The Autumn election will bring out the turkeys as both options on the Grexit debate are ruinous

The Pro-Euro camp will ask turkeys to vote for Christmas arguing that continued austerity, cooperation with the Quadroika and endless recession will keep Greece nominally in the Euro and theoretically part of the European family.

The Pro-Drachma camp will ask turkeys to vote for another type of Christmas where the whole nation is united in poverty and has to undergo a lengthy adjustment run by the likes of Lafazanis, Kostantopoulou and it seems Yanis.

This turkey will vote for the Euro-Version of Christmas, but I can bet you we will keep having this discussion, and you will keep receiving this newsletter for some time to come.

turkeys

@iGlinavos

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28 thoughts on “Grexit Daily News – 6 August 2015

  1. “So long as there is a threat of Grexit this newsletter will stick around. Is there still a threat of Grexit you may say? ”

    Won’t happen. Cannot be allowed to happen. But there may be a very serious less macro and more micro perspective which complicates talks.*

    Iannos, personally I never believed that Schäuble was serious about the Grexit. But then, I cannot read his mind as Yanis apparently can. But yes, he may have felt pushed into a corner.

    * The interesting thing may well be, that many Greek know there should be reforms, but from the moment they are not sure that the reforms are only meant to create a no-liberal free market, meaning once outsider seem to control and decide matters change.

    *******

    I never understood why Syriza did not simply let the last program end and prepare a real good Greek plan, challenging any type of one-size-fits-all perceptions that may make no sense in Greece for the next obviously needed program.

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    • ” Cannot be allowed to happen.”

      At least not now. One doesn’t stumble into matters like that in Europe. The question is what type of emergency plans the larger debate triggers. After all there have been calls for the Deuxit too by now. Meaning the German currency is undervalued causing problems for other countries. Demands to break up the Eurozone again.

      Yanis seems to have friends in that field, while not quite support it. To the extend I understand him now: The Germans can export to their straight hearts delight as long as they prepare for constant surplus transfer to the South. … But then there are ever crowing streams of refugees too.

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      • “ Cannot be allowed to happen. At least not now. One doesn’t stumble into matters like that in Europe.”

        It seems to me that quite a few EMU members were prepared to let Greece go and they (more or less) stumbled into another round of negotiations. I am not at all convinced these other countries will enter the negotions sincerely.

        They might just want to string Greece along, until the outcome (Grexit) is unavoidable.

        From the Yanis point of view 100 bn should be written off, so Greece can borrow another 100 bn. I don’t see that happen. Even if the leaders agree, there will be uproar in the various parliaments.

        So the outcome will remain uncertain and this uncertainty won’t make matters much better for Greece.

        Given that, I believe Greek would be better of to take Stäuble’s offer for an orderly exit. You probably extract that way more money from Germany than fighting them tooth and nail.
        https://contradictingyanis.wordpress.com/2015/08/05/ramblings/

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      • Pim, I am aware of the support Schäuble has, in some cases its easy to understand. Especially in the East, where the living standards are lower then in Greece and they obey the basic framework and still have to contribute.

        What I don’t understand completely is how the bank bail outs in Ireland and Spain are related. In both cases the troubles seem to have been accompanied by a housing boom, with no doubt a couple of German banks and Investment Fonds involved. The insurance company Alliance always surfaces in such matters. On the other hand why did troubles start once the crash in the US started.

        My comments are erased again. Very odd game they play over there at master of the “global Hoover” or the global Minotauros site. I’ll ignore him from now on. Interestingly they allow an extreme anti-Yanis personage. Pretty manipulative handling.

        I still think there will be a deal. But that is only a part of it. The politics of resentment in play no doubt are not a good sign for the future. And I think they are here to stay.

        Concerning debts written off. How would the market respond to that? I could imagine you get better longterm rates the more reliable you proved before. You are a bit cynical off course, concerning write off debts and make new ones.

        But how sustainable are other state’s debts including the bigger player’s be long term, I wonder. What new financial tools do our own state’s use in this context?

        What’s no doubt odd is the way we deal with the high stake financial gambling in connection with the banks. We socialize bank debts. The public has to pay while the gamblers are paid off. Thus yes, aren’t they too invited to gamble somewhere else again? Now even given confirmed that in the end they can never lose?

        What I do not a bit understand is how the Greece crisis and the real estate bubbles in Spain and Ireland and the resulting bank bailouts or socialization of bank debts, as a result of high stake speculation are related. There wasn’t a building boom in Greece, was there?

        More then two decades ago by now a former member, of the social democrats, now “The Left” suggested that speculation had to be separated from normal bank business. He left both his job as minister of finances and the party after. Had that happened the public wouldn’t have needed to bail out banks to such a high degree. The Spiegel mentioned that Mr. Minotauros plans to meet him over his intention to found some non-party initiative or some type of European Alliance. Considering the resentment politics “the master” seems to be so fond of, I am not sure if this is a good sign and not simply a means to spread it even further.

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      • “Alliance always surfaces in such matters. ”

        Of course the Deutsche Bank always does, as so all the high profile names in the market.

        Deutsche Bank claimed they didn’t need to be bailed out. But they also got a big share of the American AIG (Fanny and Mae?) bailout.

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      • Thanks for the link to Sahra’s website. I have seen/heard her speak a few times on RT television in the past and I was impressed. I just had never thought to see if she had an English website.

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      • @ LeaNder.

        “I still think there will be a deal. But that is only a part of it. The politics of resentment in play no doubt are not a good sign for the future. And I think they are here to stay.”

        You can’t tell of course, but the question should be, will such a deal do any good to the Greek. My opinion on that, https://contradictingyanis.wordpress.com/2015/08/07/running-for-the-exit/

        As far as the write off is concerned. I’m not at all cynical (although that comes natural to me. Diogenes and so on).

        I translate Yanis’s viewpoint in normal (for everybody) understandable wordings.

        He is trying to sell the idea that you can say to your lenders, “I’m perfectly willing to borrow some more from you (he actually has no other option, nobody else will lent him a dime) provided you will cancel the previous loans.

        It is a complicated way of saying give me more money.

        To me this translates as the demand of a toddler. “Give me a candy bar or I shit myself.”

        If Mr Schäuble has any sense (and I think he has), I cannot image an other response than “Ok, than shit yourself”.

        You have more questions, I ‘ll use that as inspiration and answer them on my own blog.

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      • Pim, see my responses and questions over at your blog.

        “My comments are erased again. Very odd game they play over there at master of the “global Hoover” or the global Minotauros site. I’ll ignore him from now on. Interestingly they allow an extreme anti-Yanis personage. Pretty manipulative handling.”

        Interesting. it seemed this morning, but now they are back again.

        Strictly I don’t worry about my comments, but when I checked today and they had gone, with newer ones available I wondered. It’s also highly unlikely that given the prominence Yanis searches and receives that what we see is the whole fact.

        Now there are four core possibilities, I love the number four: for longer now:

        a) I am hallucinating.
        b) Iannos blog is watched and the fact I linked to Sahra Wagenknecht, and mentioning Oscar Lafontaine, while not quite by name helped the– I suppose helpful hands over there handling matters for their master– to reconsider their decisions.
        c) there is some larger manipulating forces in play, whoever they are, notice I am not a fan of this version, and since I have a direct link to the site and from there go to respective articles, its unlikely that technically it could be done.
        d) I love the four, thus now I have to reflect whatever was on my mind earlier: A new comments control admin, that simply that simply does not quite understands but nevertheless follows rules? And the rules include. Ignore: Ralph Musgrave, no matter what he writes. He is an important impersonator.

        Like

      • Iannos, please delete my latest comment.

        I have to return to my own survival duties. And maybe worry less that I am confronted load of highly emotional German past imagery, among others.

        I am gone for good.

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      • mikenetherlands says:

        @LeaNder

        “There wasn’t a building boom in Greece, was there?”

        This is the best kept secret in this crises, there was a building boom. Homes! Buy your home in Greece. Complete areas are destroyed with useless concrete. Low low quality, often illegal. Spitia gia ta poulia. Houses for the births to live in. Nobody wants them, but they are financed by the banks. And many Greeks both a house with a mortgage they, never, never can pay. And this surprise is still undiscovered on the balance sheets of banks. Together with many other loans that can never be paid. The stress test in October will be very interesting……..

        Like

      • thanks, Mike, I wrote a series of really stupid comments yesterday. But then, I began to read the “the Greece implosion” section on YV. And it triggers seriously confused emotions. I know, that’s no excuse. Maybe I will encounter real-estate funds gone toxic there too. Anyway: One example.

        It’s the (German) banks, stupid

        I often found die Deutsche Bundesbank in dubious contexts, like German-American deals usually 1.000 pages long and thus hard to judge, called: cross border leasing. Some type of deal that allowed cities to lease their assets to US investors for sometimes 99 years. I also often encountered e.g. the branches of the Allianz (real estate) or the Allianz (insurance) itself involved in what felt to me shady contexts. But that the German banks are some type of vultures since they may well have held bonds of the Greece state, I fail to understand. Isn’t that usually not quite a field in which much is to be gained? And something that is also usually quite solid. Thus how are these bonds related to secretly stored away bad (US, Ireland, Spanish – toxic papers) . I want to understand why they stick out so much in the European context. All other banks and related institutions are some greater humanitarian forces?

        “So, what is the Great Banking Conundrum that Europe is now facing? Put bluntly, Germany’s banks have not been cleansed of much of the worthless toxic paper of the pre-2008 era and, on top of that, are replete with bonds issued by the now insolvent peripheral member-states. ”

        “… there is no way out of here said the joker to the thief …” He arranges matters quite well, considered collectively we press money out of the citizen at the periphery for the benefit of our own banks, so we do not get into bigger troubles ourselves. And then of course turn around and point fingers at these weaker parties.

        ******
        By the way, yes I did read Das Kapital, but I never studied it as close in usually one to two year regular weekly work-groups as my co-students at the time in their different camps on the left usually did. I wish I had at least not written that, it was stupid. No, I wasn’t ever a true believer in either type of bible in that field.

        ******
        I often can’t help, but feel that YV actually prefers the British/American system to the Eurozone. I lived, studied and worked for a while in GB and I like the people and their humor. The same is true about America, I am not sure though I am too fond of their financial systems. No matter how much ours converge with it. Let’s see if Bernie Sanders makes it in the US or someone like Donald Trump, with his own resentment politics.

        But strictly I am still far away from having connected all his lines of “the master’s” thought, or at least to the extend I understand. I am often struggling with what feels like a paradox.

        *****
        Please don’t misunderstand, by the way. I respect Sahra. And maybe nobody really worried about how she really spelled herself. 😉

        Like

    • “Thanks for the link to Sahra’s website.”

      Never mind Sahra. I really do recognize her development from what felt “neo-Stalinist “, sorry but that is how she felt at the time she was perceived more publicly , to doctor “phil “– isn’t it ultimately a field of social science? which at least seems to belong into the larger field of philolog: of economy. Sahra no doubt is interesting, but she also feeds on a huge amount of political experience.

      Fact is, from the times of Marx’ The Capital on, money flowed wherever it was sure to gain or “thought it may” from no doubt other people’s work. Although it no doubt got more complicated by the–we are told–necessary financial market’s own security forces. In other words if you bet on a Euro deflation longterm, you may win, but who exactly pays the bill in the long run?

      What a pity we cannot raise Marx from the 19th century to tell us how things should be handled today.

      I am afraid, I am not open to recognize Yanis as his legitimate inheritor. And notice, I studied “Das Kapital”.

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  2. The Greeks may not have a lot of spare cash lying around, but it seems that they still have a jolly good sense of humour. And to prove this point, I present to the world my friend, iGlivanos, who said:

    “if I had a penny for every time a Greek deadline has been missed, I would have an account in Switzerland by now.”

    Seriously, though, I concur 100% with your analysis embodied in the following statements:

    “It seems very likely that Syriza is about to split. The so-called Left Platform has made it clear that they will not play ball and vote for a new MOU. The schizophrenic attitude of not voting for laws, yet supporting the government (how?) cannot and will not continue much after the end of the summer. Tsipras is running out of time as it is and cannot make it for a couple more months without a Parliamentary majority. He will call an election soon. The question is who will run in this election and on what platform?……The election will need to be fought by coalitions of parties, or forces, that have to clearly back remaining in the Euro or returning to the Drachma. Everything else is pointless, and in any case unlikely to attract much public interest. If the election is not fought on Grexit questions, then what will it be on? Vote for someone (who?) who will negotiate (LOL) with the creditors a better (double LOL) deal?”

    Greek politics have reached a watershed. A critical point. There can be no more turning away from the fact the hardest of choices will have to be made soon. Sugar-coating the bitter truth is no longer going to work. Hopefully, the majority of the Greek electorate realise this by now.

    I cannot support your description of them (or yourself) as “turkeys”. I think that, to their credit, the Greeks have become the most politically savvy nation in Europe. It was not the people’s fault that their politicians misled them a little and then caved in when genuine leadership was required. Now the Greeks have bring their political leaders to account. I therefore will merely assume that your reference to “turkeys” was just to bolster your reputation of having a good sense of humour and to try to make a bit of a joke.

    I look forward to the next newsletter!

    Like

  3. The fierce internal Syriza opposition against Tsipras’ U-turn after the referendum doesn’t come as a surprise. The blatantly unrealistic nature of the pre-electoral Thessaloniki Programme had to lead sooner or later to infighting between pragmatic realists and dogmatic purists. Also see the blog entry by Vasiliki Siouti, previous post at iGlinavos in Greek (Google Translate is my friend).

    Even when the ongoing negotiations on the Third Bailout Programme are concluded successfully, it remains to be seen to what extent and on what timescale the “institutions” will be willing to commit and release funds, given this very uncertain and unstable political situation in Athens. Ideally domestic politics (and possibly gov’t changes) should not be of concern, but it’s already well known that Greek governments very easily and light-heartedly backtrack on agreements made by predecessors, and surely that experience will be taken into account.

    By the way, the endless tendency to backtrack and to reopen negotiations on earlier agreements is (IMHO) by far the most important reason why the rest of Europe is fed up with the Greeks. For instance, Zoe K. is serious about rewinding the “prior actions” as soon as the money has been released… how could one ever deal with such partners. Even more importantly, such repeated back-and-forth swings of legislation undermine economic stability, and are surely not in the best interest of the Greek population.

    Ultimately I think the wisest approach would be a mutually-agreed temporary exit to “some” virtual currency, jointly designed by an international team of experts. The currency could then be allowed to devalue to equilibrium in a more-or-less controlled fashion. I don’t believe that the academic exit-duo Lapavitzas-Varoufakis, on their own, could ever come up with something more trustworthy than Monopoly money (not necessarily by lack of skill, but surely by lack of international “fiat” as in fiat money).

    Liked by 1 person

    • Eric, unfortunately, while it is my friend too, it has severe limits. Besides why doesn’t it translate: kineseon. Sounds like our word for movie theater could be related to it. Kino. Which may suggest it means something like movement.

      Hmm? κινήσεων – on the other hand there is κίνησης in the title, and that is translated with movement. Maybe it doesn’t recognize the case variant in context later

      In other words you are often left guessing.

      Was there a Zoe K mentioned? Do you have a a link?

      Like

      • mikenetherlands says:

        Ah. Zoi Konstantopoulou. Speaker of the Hellenic Parliament. An human rights and Lawyer. Very special. Left wing platform together with Lapavitsas etc.

        Like

      • Thanks Mike, you are helpful,

        For instance, Zoe K. is serious about rewinding the “prior actions” as soon as the money has been released

        And she said that publicly? No selections, even demands that may well make sense? I hear some actually do.

        That our chatting political classes often direct their cuts at groups that have no lobby, is a completely different matter and pretty similar everywhere. Try to strengthen the left, and watch the right rise on the other side. That feels like a natural law to me.

        But yes paradox again, maybe, we actually want reforms, but when they are dictated reforms, and maybe more important, part of a larger conspiracy to rob us for the benefit of German banks, we don’t want any of it, roll back changes and return to the good old state of matters.

        I read about a juridical reform by the current goverment, it seemed. Sometimes before April, maybe. No doubt the comment could have been biased, but it sounded really odd. In a nutshell: you surrender to a rather superficial part of a European legal court challenge. You don’t reform the prison conditions, only set one apparently handicapped special person free. Beyond that, you don’t do much. … But matters in the juridical context don’t seem fine at all. … Oh yes, to diminish prison inmates, you create a law, at least that’s how I remember it, that anyone who gets up to five years in prison can alternatively buy himself free.

        Now considering they claim they represent the less well off, is that fair, I ask you?

        Like

      • “That feels like a natural law to me.”

        by the way, I am no fan of a union between radical left and radical right. Reminds me of “national socialism”.

        Like

  4. I made a new post on my blog:
    Bruegel Report on Greece
    https://erikdesonville.wordpress.com/2015/08/08/bruegel-report-on-greece/
    Text is copied hereunder.

    Bruegel> The time is ripe to analyse in fine detail the conditions attached to the Greek programmes and to look in particular at the degree of structural reform implementation under the first and second programmes, the speed at which implementation took place, and the headings under which reforms were enacted, especially compared to the other euro-area programme countries.

    “Reform Momentum and its Impact on Greek Growth” is a 14-page report, published 2015-Jul-29 by the Brussels-based international think-tank “Bruegel” (chaired by Jean-Claude Trichet, former ECB Chairman 2003-2011).

    The report gives a scientific analysis of the 1st and 2nd bailout programmes for Greece, in comparison with the bailout programmes for Ireland and for Portugal, and identifies the reasons why the programmes for Ireland and Portugal were more successful than in Greece.

    It deserves very careful reading by all parties involved in the forthcoming 3rd bailout programme.

    http://www.bruegel.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/892-reform-momentum-and-its-impact-on-greek-growth/

    Like

  5. Single humans, versus the grand narratives, that sell so well. RIP:

    ******

    Maybe, I should relate a memory of a close friend, who incidentally helped me to be able to look up Greek words in a dictionary, obviously to recognize them first, and still is helpful in that larger context, meaning Greek history and more generally ancient history.

    He frequently visited Greece up to pretty recently, often Crete too, where events took place.

    Initially he went there by car from Berlin to get an impression of the countries he passed on the way. Often he met a guy from close to Berlin working as a lifeguard on the Baltic Sea, not too far from Berlin. They always met in Crete. That man too often went down there by car. Quite a journey up to the ferry in either Piraeus or somewhere else on the Peloponnese. Kalamata? Both noticed that some more basic matters didn’t change elementarily at least from the point of view of tourists that had passed Yugoslavian frontiers, before Glasnost mind you, even after the shift from Junta to democracy.

    In any case he doesn’t really recall exactly what year it happened: Sometimes in the early 80s. He was there so frequently, he doesn’t really recall.

    In any case he had met his co-tourist, the lifeguard from the Timmerdorfer Strand often before. To the extend he recalls matters. That guy had lent his car to other tourists. And then something happened. It wasn’t easy to figure out, maybe these people had an accident or something, in any case his tourist friend wound up in jail. But more worryingly he never left the jail alive. Just as my friend he was in his late 20s early 30s at the time. He made his way back home in a casket. Coffin, if you prefer that word.

    I like these micro-historical bit, a lot more then the grand explanatory narratives.

    But yes, I am aware that his friend may simply have been unlucky, some type of collateral damage. After all life is not fair.

    *****

    My friend is a painter/sculptor, and I wonder what he thinks of YV’ use Minotauros for some time lnow. I understand it may have been a substitute for the “Grand Hoover” or maybe its European variant, at one point in time. But Obviously Crete, and yes Minotauros exactly in that image context has left traces in the work of my friend. But yes: That I haven’t asked him so far. Besides, I really don’t want to buy him a copy. Although he is an avaricious reader. 😉

    Like

  6. I read in Macropolis an article on the possible outcome of another Greek election. Syriza has no capacity to implement a new MoU. The very suggestion that Tsipras can call an election, win it and then run an austerity implementing government ignores the key lack of personnel to staff it. Once the Left Platform departs and the anti-austerity members shy away from posts the only people left will be those who cannot (rather than do not) want to meet targets.

    Like

    • Well, implementing policy seems to me (as everywhere else) the task of civil servants. Now there will be some reluctance there https://contradictingyanis.wordpress.com/2015/08/08/both-of-them/
      but amongst the 50% unemployed youngster there should be enough talent that sincerely wants to fight waste and corruption.

      Or has every Greek with some sense left the country? Preferring lousy weather and the obnoxious neo-liberal living conditions that are the standard outside Greece?

      Like

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