10 July 2015 — A stay of execution?
As I am writing this, Parliament is debating whether to grant its support to the offer made by Tsakalotos to the creditors. It is certain that the proposal will attract the acceptance of the vast majority of MPs. It is less certain whether Syriza will survive. I think it will not and a new election will be called imminently.
Will this offer herald a deal and a 3rd bailout? Indications tonight are that it will and Grexit will be avoided, for now.
Grexit should be avoided for now. Europe has some (inadequate) contingency planning, but Syriza has none. One does not attempt to Grexit with the economy in free fall, with the banking sector a smouldering ruin, capital controls in place and an explosive public mood after the farce of the divisive referendum over nothing.
If not now, should Grexit be attempted later? A third bailout leaves a score of significant issues unresolved. What comes after Syriza? Who can enforce the new deal? Will discontent make Golden Dawn the main opposition? Is it appropriate to be ruled by technocrat diktat?
Greece could choose to accept that its political and economic system failed, and that maintaining some semblance of normality for some sections of the population entails a surrender of sovereignty. It could on the other hand choose Drachma and take a shot at something else.
I think that once conditions calm down and Grexit does not mean apocalyptic collapse immediately, this question will need to be put to the people. As I have said before this should be done via an election where the Euro-Friendly parties face off a coalition of Drachma advocates.
I would vote for subservience and technocracy even though I built a career arguing against it. Why? Because the Syriza experiment has proved that Greece is long on populist, ignorant, incompetent fanatics and short on leaders who can make a return to the national currency a success in the long run. They say that countries get the politicians they deserve. I leave this to you to reflect on.