14 June 2015
After Syriza What?
There has been a lot of speculation recently on the collapse of Syriza. Apparently a lot of people are thinking or hoping that Syriza will come to its senses, agree to a deal that staves off default and then transform into a more moderate coalition of forces.
Is this possible or desirable? Greece on Friday still refused to budge and accept what has been billed as an ultimatum by the Troika on accepting what’s on offer currently. If Tsipras were to agree, could he pass any resulting measures from the Greek parliament?
My prediction is that Tsipras will agree something that will be a much better deal than what Samaras had achieved, yet a deal that will be miles away from the Thessaloniki Programme. When he comes home and tries to legislate it, the bulk of Syriza MPs will resist it, and the laws will pass with the support of the opposition parties (barring KKE and Golden Dawn of course).
This will spell the end of Syriza in its current form. It is rumoured that this is what the lenders are hoping for.
Whatever you think of this hypothetical, the truth is that acceptance or rejection will necessitate a new election.