Grexit Daily News – 14 June 2015

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14 June 2015

After Syriza What?

There has been a lot of speculation recently on the collapse of Syriza. Apparently a lot of people are thinking or hoping that Syriza will come to its senses, agree to a deal that staves off default and then transform into a more moderate coalition of forces.

Is this possible or desirable? Greece on Friday still refused to budge and accept what has been billed as an ultimatum by the Troika on accepting what’s on offer currently. If Tsipras were to agree, could he pass any resulting measures from the Greek parliament?

My prediction is that Tsipras will agree something that will be a much better deal than what Samaras had achieved, yet a deal that will be miles away from the Thessaloniki Programme. When he comes home and tries to legislate it, the bulk of Syriza MPs will resist it, and the laws will pass with the support of the opposition parties (barring KKE and Golden Dawn of course).

This will spell the end of Syriza in its current form. It is rumoured that this is what the lenders are hoping for.

Whatever you think of this hypothetical, the truth is that acceptance or rejection will necessitate a new election.

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@iGlinavos

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2 thoughts on “Grexit Daily News – 14 June 2015

  1. Pancho says:

    Looks like a good thing that you’re just an academic blogger and not involved in real world politics.
    As an academic blogger you can annoy your readers with your wrecked nerve costume as much as you want with the consequences being limited to losing readers. In real world, Greece doesn’t sink every day like your staccato lachrimosity would suggest.

    > My prediction is that Tsipras will agree something that will be a much better deal than what Samaras had achieved
    So this is another major retreat from your previous premises. Now guess how Tsipras would have managed such a “much better deal”? And contrast it with the deal Greece would have reached if you had been the government’s adviser.

    > yet a deal that will be miles away from the Thessaloniki Programme.
    Indeed, the Thessaloniki Programme won’t be spelled out paragraph by paragraph in the agreement. But with creative exegesis, wise strategic decisions and a good policy to jumpstart the economy, much of the programme will still be within reach.

    > When he comes home and tries to legislate it, the bulk of Syriza MPs will resist it, and the laws will pass with the support of the opposition parties (barring KKE and Golden Dawn of course).
    Let’s wait on the actual text of the agreement. It looks like Merkel, Juncker and Schulz have understood that they don’t really hold any cards anymore while the Greeks more than ever hold the whip hand. But even if Zoi and some of the Left Platform resist, this wouldn’t be a drama.

    > This will spell the end of Syriza in its current form. It is rumoured that this is what the lenders are hoping for.
    Certainly. But what I’m asking myself is: Is it rather what you’re hoping for?

    > Whatever you think of this hypothetical, the truth is that acceptance or rejection will necessitate a new election.
    Nope. Barely more than 10% of the Greek electorate favor a new election. Nea Dimokratia is completely wrecked. Maybe Pasok and Potami end up being offered a ministerial post each, maybe not even that.

    > Greece vs. everybody
    Don’t think so. Maybe in Germany, but then again, fuck the German bourgeoisie. They have never been real friends of self-confident, living Greeks as opposed to dead ancient Greeks or droll Sirtaki dancers in their holiday resorts.

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